A working paper, presented at a conference at the Central Bank of Colombia in July, studies the determinants of sovereign default risk in Colombia, identifying a number of factors that affect risk at different bond maturities.

The authors, Jair Ojeda-Joya and José Gómez-González, analyse government bond spreads as a proxy for default risk over the period 2000–2011. The paper finds that government indebtedness is an important determinant of default risk for maturities of less than seven years