Norges Bank: Logarithmic opinion pools better forecaster of uncertainties
A Norges Bank paper published last Wednesday finds that logarithmic opinion pools are better than linear opinion pools for measuring density forecasts, which are important to the monetary policy decision making process.
Rate-setters make policy decisions about their instruments in the context of a fundamentally uncertain world. To ensure appropriate monetary policy decisions, central bankers must provide suitable characterisations of that uncertainty.
The paper uses density combination methods
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