Monetary policy
Policy interactions may drive global banking contraction, BoE economists find
The combination of unconventional monetary policy and regulation may cause ‘substantial’ spillovers as banks cut cross-border lending, economists including Kristin Forbes find
Kuroda and Davos panel see little alternative to divergence
Bank of Japan governor warns a synchronised exit from easy policy in the major economies ‘could be worse’ than the ’staggered arrangement’ at present
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Economists point to external woes as Central Bank of Brazil holds rates
Monetary policy committee leaves interest rate at 14.25% in surprise move; politics and fiscal policy making life harder for central bank, analysts suggest
Independent review calls for major changes at Riksbank
Riksbank criticised for reliance on models, board members’ quarrels and ‘surreal’ monetary guidance, though King and Goodfriend say it is ‘clearly a success’ compared with past regimes
Carney says UK rate hike still some way off
Continued weakness in key indicators begins to puzzle policy-makers as Carney suggests there is room for the MPC to wait longer; CPI and core inflation on the rise
Bank of England's Vlieghe wants more nuanced approach to monetary policy
Bank of England policy-maker says high levels of debt, ageing population and distribution of income combine to make him ‘patient' about rate hike; questions modelling based on representative agents
Polish governor says inflation will rise slower than expected
Inflation will not turn positive in January 2016 as previously expected, governor Marek Belka says; monetary policy council keeps policy rate unchanged
Volatility fails to shake outlook as BoE holds rates steady
Latest MPC minutes are largely preoccupied with discussion of international developments, but falling oil prices and market volatility do not herald major change in stance
Economics in central banking: John Taylor
The Stanford University professor wins this year's economics award for work in designing a global 'rules of the game', at a time when many central banks are demanding deeper co-operation
Sarb deputy governor sees growing inflation risks ahead of MPC meeting
South African Reserve Bank policy-makers must assess ‘very carefully’ whether its stance remains appropriate, Mminele says; MPC meets January 21
Monetary policy easing increases systemic risk-taking, paper finds
Brazilian domestic monetary policy is more statistically significant in this regard than foreign monetary policy, working paper suggests
New bank business models could undermine stability, panellists warn
Panel including Mark Carney and Agustín Carstens raises concerns over the way regulation and low rates are forcing banks to adapt in unpredictable ways
Villeroy de Galhau and Fischer express caution over inflation target change
There could be costs to changing inflation targets in response to persistent low inflation, say François Villeroy de Galhau, Christian Noyer and Stanley Fischer
Kaplan urges careful consideration of volatility
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Robert Kaplan warns of the potential for further market volatility as normalisation continues
Mexico to ‘persevere’ in strengthening macroeconomic framework, bank deputy says
Deputy governor says effect of further normalisation in US policy ‘unclear’; Mexico to continue strengthening financial system
Korean paper explores ‘divergent’ spillovers to EMs
Macro-prudential policies key to protecting emerging markets from spillovers, research says; normalisation in the US could lead to ‘renewed tensions’
BoJ board reveals miscommunication fears
New ‘summary of opinions’ reveals some on board concerned about giving impression stimulus is at its limit, while some see dangers to taking further action
Room for monetary policy stimulus has ‘narrowed’ in many EMs, World Bank report warns
Little room left to use monetary or fiscal stimulus in event of growth shock in some countries, report says, pointing to role for structural reform
BIS paper explores policy trade-offs in Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific central banks that have used macro-prudential policy to control credit growth may have faced a short-term trade-off between financial and price objectives, paper notes
Real impact of credit booms demands policy rethink, say BIS economists
Financial booms and busts feed through to the real economy via labour reallocations, harming productivity growth; results call for wide-ranging rethink of models and policy, authors say
PBoC injects liquidity following market rout
Central bank intervenes with $20bn reverse repo operation as markets slump, restoring a semblance of calm
Norges Bank paper seeks to improve modelling of money
Researchers aim to capture the role of money as both a medium of exchange and a liquid asset, with the resulting equilibrium underscoring the need for a liquidity coverage ratio
Chilean central bank spells out risks to outlook
Central bank expects inflation to return to 3% target by end of 2017 according to latest forecasts; details risks from home and abroad to macroeconomic outlook