Monetary policy
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
Record-low inflation may require ECB to boost PEPP purchases
HICP index expected to decline year on year by 0.2% in August; core inflation at record-low 0.4%
BoE open to heterodox tools in new research agenda
Traditional tools of economic analysis “cannot always answer every question”, says Andrew Bailey
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
Don’t wait too long to normalise balance sheets – Bailey
Central banks need to unwind balance sheets when tightening policy, BoE governor warns
Central bank comms need “second sea change” – Canadian governor
Pandemic has shown importance of transparency and communications, Tiff Macklem says
ECB ready to adjust its policy instruments – Philip Lane
MAS chairman warns that post-pandemic labour markets will need new public policies
Bank of Korea forecasts GDP will contract by 1.3%
Central bank leaves interest rates on hold but says growth outlook remains uncertain
Fed adopts average inflation target
Powell says FOMC will also allow employment to run above estimated maximum level
Official institutions lead the Covid‑19 recovery charge
Tested by the Covid-19 pandemic, market consensus is that official institutions have been instrumental in mitigating market disruption. As economies work out how to adapt to a post-lockdown world, major public bodies are likely to play a key role in the…
Eurozone needs ‘forceful policy response’ – Schnabel
Banks in eurozone face “substantial pressure” from Covid-19, ECB board member warns
Thai governor calls for bigger fiscal boost
“More needs to be done”, Santiprabhob says, as Thai economy faces major contraction
The eurozone’s eastern conundrum
Bulgaria and Croatia expect a net positive effect as they take final steps to join the euro, while the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland remain reluctant
Bank of Canada seeks public views on inflation targeting
Canadian central bank aims to increase public engagement with monetary policy review
RBNZ investigating use of negative rates, official says
New Zealand central bank would only use measure if necessary, assistant governor says
Turkey holds rates but raises reserve ratios
Move appears to be attempt to stem fall in currency despite president’s opposition to rate hikes
RBA expects long period of low inflation – minutes
Policy set to remain on hold, as board members say term funding is having desired effect
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Bundesbank paper uses neural networks for rate forecasting
Artificial neural networks outperform linear and non-linear functions, author says
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but the rush to find alternative economic indicators has the potential to create problems
Book notes: The menace of fiscal QE, by George Selgin
Much of this book is even more relevant, thought-provoking and important following Covid-19
Bank of Mexico cites ‘major challenges’ as it cuts rate
Policy-makers focused on maintaining “room for manoeuvre” as inflation risks evolve
Book notes: Radical uncertainty, by Mervyn King and John Kay
The one certainty we have faced is that we have to confront uncertainty, which is precisely the point of this wonderful book
Computing platforms for big data and AI
Implementing big-data and high-performance computing platforms is critical to support machine learning applications. Rafael Schmidt and Bruno Tissot offer insights on developing a comprehensive information strategy