Inflation
Pass-through varies across countries and time – BoE paper
Kristin Forbes and co-authors study the shocks and structural factors that help explain variations in the exchange rate’s impact on inflation
Divided Central Bank of Colombia votes to cut interest rates
Worries about inflation not returning to target spur board to cut interest rates to 5.75%; external conditions remain a concern despite slightly better inflation data
Pakistan growth hits decade high – SBP report
Central bank says high growth, low inflation and solid investment are nevertheless overshadowed by falling exports, which have impacted reserves
Survey data can help with modelling expectations – BoJ paper
Discussion paper outlines method of incorporating survey data as a proxy for expectations, with “promising” results for inflation modelling in the US and Japan
House prices could outstrip income for decades – David Miles
Former Bank of England policymaker says under “plausible” assumptions, real house prices can rise without limit, implying high prices are not necessarily a sign of bubbles
BoJ told to improve communication on potential exit from stimulus
Speculation is growing over the timing and method of the exit from the stimulus programme, creating a new communication challenge for the BoJ
BIS urges policymakers to exploit ‘window of opportunity’
Financial cycles are getting close to turning in many economies and central banks and governments must make sure they are prepared, the BIS warns in its 2017 annual report
BoJ’s Iwata says expectations likely to shift as inflation returns
Deputy governor cites Milton Friedman in arguing that people will become more forward-looking when their wages are eroded by inflation
RBI minutes: ‘abrupt’ retreat of inflation calls for caution
MPC members express surprise at swift retreat of food prices, though they warn against setting policy by looking in the “rearview mirror”
Bank of Canada prepares to open redesigned museum
Museum set to reopen in July after “complete reimagining”, including interactive exhibits on the central bank’s mandate, inflation-based games and a two-tonne “Yap stone”
Recovery increasingly resilient; inflation predictions down – ECB
GDP forecasts revised up and ECB says recovery is “broadening”, but inflation projections revised down
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
Indonesian deputy Perry on revolutionising monetary and financial policy
Perry Warjiyo explains the central bank’s radical overhaul of monetary policy operations, market deepening and financial inclusion in Indonesia
Chicago Fed’s Evans: central bankers may be biased against inflation
Chicago Fed president thinks current policymakers may have overcompensated for inflationary bias of the past
BoE economists criticise DSGE inflation modelling
Team including MPC member Kristin Forbes criticises structural modelling approaches for failing to properly account for trend inflation
Kashkari chooses between ‘faith and data’
Minneapolis Fed president says FOMC should have waited to see if inflation rise was transitionary before raising rates in June
MPC dissent grows amid BoE dilemma
Rates remain on hold but committee split 5-3 as some argue the BoE’s difficult trade-off has shifted in favour of tackling inflation
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Yellen willing to reassess 2% target
Fed chair says question of the right target level is one of the most important facing central banks today; wind-down of QE likely to be dull, she adds
FOMC votes for hike but stays cautious on outlook
Fed committee votes for second rate hike of 2017, but enthusiasm for further tightening appears to be fading
Term premiums matter for inflation – BoJ paper
Term premiums domestically and abroad appear to affect inflation via the exchange rate channel, authors find
Riksbank unveils results of web-scraping project
The big data technique for collecting prices could better capture volatile inflation components, allowing for more accurate forecasts, economists say
Inflation overshoot should affect adaptive part of expectations, says Kuroda
Bank of Japan governor says there is still a long way to go until the price stability target is achieved
Draghi flags wage weakness as he defends easing measures
“Very substantial” accommodation still needed, says ECB president; central bank is devoting resources to understanding low wage growth