Growth
African growth could be ‘derailed’ by geopolitical tensions
South African Reserve Bank fears terrorism in continent’s key growth economies and heightened risk of social unrest could harm Africa’s growth prospects; also concerned by domestic unemployment
ECB annual report strikes hopeful note at end of rough year
Report highlights peak in financial market stress in mid-year, but says policy measures were effective in reducing this later in year; inflation above target and growth on downward slide
BoE’s McCafferty denies Monetary Policy Committee has ‘gone soft’
MPC member highlights positive signs for growth but says inflation is ‘more concerning’; expects inflation to remain above target but says a response is not yet necessary
SNB vice-chair tells people to ‘fasten seatbelts’ following CCB activation
Jean-Pierre Danthine says activation of the counter-cyclical capital buffer aims to avoid a sharp fall in property prices and rise in defaults, but achieving a soft landing will be challenging
IMF's Blanchard warns Europe could drag world economy down
IMF chief economist says ‘three-speed’ global economy could be dangerous; World Economic Outlook urges central banks to keep policy loose but be ready with an exit strategy
Lagarde highlights emergence of ‘three-speed’ global economy
IMF managing director says differences between regions are ‘starker than ever’ as emerging markets leave many advanced economies behind
Palestine Monetary Authority finds greater parity between West Bank and Gaza territories
Palestinian central bank develops business-cycle indicator to assess economic performance in real time; finds gap in performance between two territories is shrinking
Sri Lankan central bank reveals inflation spike in 2012
Sri Lankan annual report says economic growth, while still strong, fell in 2012 while inflation rose sharply; central bank increased reserves by 15%
Canadian deputy says global demand must ‘rotate’
John Murray warns that a lack of co-operation in global rebalancing will only make the situation worse; says global GDP could contract by $6 trillion by 2015
Israel annual report sees growth and inflation fall
Growth rate declines by 1.5% in 2012 but unemployment remains stable; inflation falls below target as schooling and mobile phone prices fall
CNB research finds exchange rate moves dampen shocks
Working paper finds exchange rate shocks are only minor contributors to the variance of output and inflation; says koruna-euro exchange rate is a shock absorber for the economy
IMF research warns short-term fiscal consolidation pain could become more serious
Paper says short-term growth impact from fiscal tightening could be worsened if markets or policy-makers overreact; emphasises this does not mean budget cuts should be scrapped
ECB paper says government spending harms growth
Study analyses impact of government revenues and spending on long-term growth; finds income taxes and public investment can both have a negative impact
BoJ survey shows households expect tough times to continue
Households see economic conditions as worse than a quarter ago and likely to stay the same, although the majority thinks prices will rise in the coming years
RBA minutes warn growth may wobble in 2013
Minutes suggest economy is struggling to rebalance away from mining as peak in resource investment approaches, but low inflation gives room for further rate cuts
ECB researchers suggest refinements to macro stress tests
Working paper identifies a number of factors in addition to growth that determine the rate of non-performing loans; authors say this could allow for more accurate stress testing
Serbian director hints at possible easing in coming months
Head of National Bank of Serbia’s research department sees inflationary pressure easing and the Serbian economy returning to growth; says this may prompt cuts in the near future
Bullard revels in greater global certainty
St Louis Fed president says uncertainty is falling around the globe; should benefit growth in euro area, emerging markets and US
King insists economy must rebalance
Governor says Bank of England can still contribute to recovery but is running up an ‘ever steeper hill’; inflation report downbeat on growth and inflation prospects
National Bank of Denmark expects recovery
Central bank says domestic demand and GDP growth will improve in 2013; existing unemployment should not have lasting impact
IMF board split on quota reform options
Disagreement among IMF executive board members over whether more emphasis on emerging markets is needed, with ‘considerable support’ for increasing weight of GDP in quota formula
Canadian study links financial development and income volatility
Working paper finds financial development can dampen the impact of technological shocks on the economy
Central Bank of Ireland drops growth forecast for 2013
Irish central bank lowers growth expectations in 2013 in response to weaker global demand; targets increased productivity in domestic economy
Majority support an inflation target, poll finds
Almost two-thirds of participants in poll say inflation-targeting central banks should stick with current policy; Mark Carney lauds the unconventional measures a flexible framework allows