Growth
IMF’s Lagarde warns on global growth
Managing director says next week’s assessment of world economy will bring bad news with regard to growth; urges increased co-operation to renew economic recovery
National Bank of Serbia annual report reviews policy changes
Annual monetary policy report highlights shift in mid-2011 towards monetary easing in Serbia; says pressure from food prices caused inflation to repeatedly overshoot target in first half of year
Bank of Finland paper evaluates confidence indicators in forecasts
Discussion paper analyses the link between measures of confidence and growth forecasting in the Russian economy; finds not all measures improve accuracy of forecasts
ECB paper studies sovereign debt and growth links
Working paper studies relationship between different levels of sovereign debt and growth; finds increasing debt only boosts short-run growth up to a certain threshold
BoE paper quantifies output gap estimation errors
Bank of England discussion paper models accuracy of output gap estimations based on OECD data; argues that absolute size of revisions to estimates does not improve over time
Bank of Korea finds slight increase in North Korean GDP for 2011
Estimates by Bank of Korea suggest North Korean GDP grew by 0.8% in 2011; represents first year of positive growth since 2008
Mexican deputy governor weighs challenges facing economy
Bank of Mexico’s Manuel Sánchez examines effect of capital inflows and eurozone problems on Mexican economy; says growth expected to continue at a moderate rate
Slew of central banks hold rates amid economic uncertainty
Riksbank, National Bank of Poland, Reserve Bank of Australia and Central Bank of Colombia all keep policy rates unchanged; central banks offer mixed message on global economy
Sarb makes $60m loss due to costs of forex intervention
South African Reserve Bank suffers loss in fiscal year 2011/12 due to cost of forex activities; governor describes economic challenges in coming year as ‘daunting’
Bangladesh governor stresses importance of SMEs
Atiur Rahman sets out steps to encourage growth of exports by small and medium enterprises; says central bank is active in promoting financial inclusion and supporting business infrastructure
Vietnam central bank statistics show positive outlook
Statistics published by the State Bank of Vietnam highlight steady economic recovery; nevertheless, central bank says “strong efforts” necessary to hit annual growth targets
IMF paper examines Japan’s emergence from lost decade
Working paper considers reasons behind a surge in Japanese exports in 2001; finds domestic productivity growth most important factor
BoJ Tankan survey shows increased business confidence
Tankan short-term economic survey reports overall increase in manufacturing confidence; forecasts further increases in next quarter
Zambian governor calls for action on SME finance
Bank of Zambia governor says policy-makers should do more to encourage financial flows to small and medium scale enterprises; examines benefits and risks of extending funding to these firms
National Bank of Hungary predicts stagflation
Quarterly inflation report projects growth contraction in 2012; says inflation is likely to persist above target due to government tax increases
Malta quarterly review presents mixed outlook
Quarterly review reports weak but improving economic activity; calls for government action to reduce debt and pursue structural reforms
BoE’s Weale discusses monetary policy challenges
Martin Weale paints bleak picture of the global economy; says new Bank of England schemes should help to support the recovery
Reserve Bank of India's governor defends policy stance
Duvvuri Subbarao responds to critics of the RBI’s tight monetary policy; says central bank’s actions are justified despite supply shocks and slowing growth
IMF paper assesses impact of financial sector size
Working paper examines the effect on growth of varying sizes of financial sectors; finds that above a certain threshold, financial sectors have a negative impact on growth
Bank of Israel review shows mixed economic outlook
Review of economic developments gives mixed assessment of economic outlook; says growth below potential but inflation on target
UK inflation unexpectedly drops again
Office for National Statistics reveals CPI annual inflation fell this month; leads to renewed QE expectations and predictions of on-target inflation figure by the end of the year
IMF paper builds dynamic model of systemic risk
Working paper develops dynamic model of risk based on combination of underlying risk factors; finds this provides better warning signals than models with non-dynamic thresholds
RBI holds rates fearing impact of further QE abroad
Reserve Bank of India says another round of quantitative easing in advanced countries would have an adverse impact on growth and inflation; keeps rates on hold in anticipation
BoJ’s Shirai considers eurozone impact on Japan
Sayuri Shirai examines eurozone crisis and discusses impact on Japan; sets out three main channels through which the economy is affected