Research
Exim shutdown stymied US firms’ export earnings – paper
Shutting down export credit agency led to large capital misallocation, Atlanta Fed researchers say
High debt raises ‘macro-financial’ risks in Americas – BIS study
Bulletin says interest costs can result in risk premia feeding into inflation expectations
BoE staff find uneven policy transmission across businesses
Survey findings suggest larger firms with high productivity and borrowing have better access to data
AI productivity shock may pull inflation up or down – BoE blog
Sectoral origin and speed of change will be key factors, economists find
Americans worried about their country’s solvency – NBER study
Bond investors, voters and economics graduates think risk of a US debt crisis is high, paper says
IMF paper details system-wide stress-testing methods
Economists propose adding data on bank-NBFI links and details of market microstructure
Bitcoin has become ‘more equity-like’ – San Francisco Fed study
Asset’s ‘financialisation’ has helped it enter same sphere as stocks, paper argues
Europe’s stability at risk if AI bubble bursts – ECB blog
Correction could freeze functioning of continent’s financial markets, say central bank economists
Tariff-induced inflation pressure begins to recede in US – study
Lower effective levies are translating into slower consumer price growth, St Louis Fed researchers say
Sticky wages help explain depressed US sentiment – paper
Lack of salary indexation, rather than inflation, to blame for decline in sentiment, authors find
Slovak firms face high costs from heatwaves – blog post
Companies need to invest in adaptation, says central bank official
ECB speeches ‘twice as religious’ as other central banks’ – blog
Bank’s speechwriters use devotional tropes during times of crisis, LSE research finds
Strong recovery in US treasury purchases is ‘unlikely’ – paper
Central banks’ demand for US government bonds has ‘plateaued’ as reserve managers diversify
Africa’s domestic debt shift raises costs and risks, BIS warns
Diversifying investor bases necessary to reduce reliance on central and commercial banks, study says
Study compares private credit and leveraged loan market structure
Some firms better able to substitute between funding types than others, authors find
Resolution reforms may cut credit supply – CEPR paper
Easier requirements on smaller US banks helps reveal impact of ‘living wills’
External shocks tighten credit conditions – ECB bulletin
New index finds funding becomes scarce after unexpected changes in economic activity
Yield curve data can improve estimates of r* – IMF paper
Results suggest r* has risen and help explain ‘soft landings’ after inflation surge
Fresh graduates’ job market perception worsened by 23% in 2025 – ECB
Research points to slowing growth in knowledge-intensive services to explain otherwise ‘cyclical’ effect
Anchoring expectations ‘critical’ in energy shock – BIS researchers
Most significant shock since the 90s Gulf crisis “may warrant hiking rates more quickly”
Digital euro would have ‘muted’ effect on banks’ funding – paper
Bundesbank finds that €3,000 holding limit would cause “contained” effects on long-term bank health