Research
NY Fed blog explores two sides of monetary policy
Short-term rates and balance sheet size both strongly affect money market conditions, study finds
Dollar still ‘special’ but Treasuries losing shine – NBER paper
Authors show ‘strong divergence’ between global roles of greenback and US government bonds
Stablecoin demand transmits to FX markets – BIS paper
Inflows into digital assets make acquiring dollars via swap markets more expensive, authors find
Debt metrics fail to reflect financial instability – BIS paper
Author says standard measures of government debt sustainability omit key market dynamics
Deposit insurance only one part of safety net – IMF study
Co-operation with resolution regime crucial to effective protection, researchers say
‘Rolling windows’ method may help evaluate big data forecasts
Barbara Rossi presents new approach at ECB’s AI conference
BIS study uncovers credit crunch driven by geopolitics
Paper finds that lending recovers more slowly than trade following shock events
BIS authors say Bistro should be on central banks’ menu
Economists say new LLM is better at projecting inflation than standard econometric models
Decentralised money always fragments – BIS’s Shin
Paper shows blockchain-based finance cannot replicate network effects of central bank money
‘Technology intensity’ worsens employment outcomes – study
Authors say jobs more likely to be lost in sectors with large prior investments in robotics and IT
BoJ bond holdings peaked at 77% between 2015 and 2024
Researchers find central bank’s debt holdings had non-linear impact on market liquidity
Stablecoins pose risks to singleness of money – BoE study
Paper explores how monetary cohesion might be preserved amid digital innovation
R* has increased globally since pandemic – NY Fed research
Higher neutral rates show government bonds might not be as liquid and safe as before, economists say
Delayed hikes lessened inflation’s distributional effects – study
Poorer households would have suffered more if ECB began tightening straight after pandemic
Monetary dominance depends on comparative advantage – paper
Money that is ‘too good’ as a store of value may not circulate, authors say
Policy normalisation may cause economic contraction – BoJ study
Effects greater under less credible forward guidance, central bank researchers find
US firms dominate entire AI supply chains – BIS bulletin
Tech giants operate across all layers, including designing chips and running clouds, study says
Lower reserves share not a sign of dollar’s decline – paper
Growth of FX coffers in countries holding fewer greenbacks dilutes currency’s share, NBER study finds
Shipping congestion drives up inflation – IMF paper
Study of tracking data shows delays at ports are reflected in headline inflation
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
Dallas Fed researcher cautions against expansionary policy
Study of US in the 1970s says oil shocks were not primary driver of inflation