Research
Bank of Italy paper uses agent-based model of housing market
Limits on borrowing are effective but not currently needed for Italian housing sector
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
Dallas Fed: credit conditions improved for most in 2020
Study of Texas finds communities with more immigrants saw fewer benefits
Riksbank publishes analysis on QE
Work aims to add transparency and offer evidence on questions of design and implementation
‘Fiscal distress’ can reverse exchange rate dynamics – BIS paper
Authors emphasise “contingent nature” of exchange rate response to shocks
‘Contagious zombies’ menace German economy – Bundesbank paper
ECB’s policies have increased flow of credit to “non-viable firms”, researchers say
Research urges ECB to consider establishing ‘fossil bank’
Entity would play similar role to ‘bad banks’ established after financial crisis
Covid-19 caused steep decline in SME turnover – BoE research
Government support stemmed collapse but younger firms suffered
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
Sarb paper questions assumption that government debt is low risk
Banks may need to reduce exposure to sovereign debt instruments as fiscal risk rises
BoE says stablecoins must be as trustworthy as commercial bank money
Stablecoins may require tailored regulation and access to emergency liquidity facilities, paper says
‘Preventive restructuring’ reduces unnecessary bankruptcies – BdF paper
Researchers compare data from French preventive restructuring and traditional bankruptcy systems
RBI faces dilemma from US policy spillovers – BIS paper
Authors highlight evidence of “contractionary devaluation” when US monetary policy tightens
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
Time series models need adapting for Covid-19 shock – ECB paper
Authors explain methods for making Phillips curves and VAR models more robust
Communication needs to be adapted for different audiences – RBA research
Producing information in different formats may improve success of economic communication
Firms are ‘inattentive’ to inflation and monetary policy – NBER paper
Authors present new survey data indicating firms’ expectations are “anything but anchored”
IMF proposes $50bn plan to ‘end the Covid-19 pandemic’
“Upfront” financing is needed to accelerate vaccinations, say Georgieva, Gopinath and Agarwal
Leverage ratios fall for most US bank categories
Kansas City Fed report finds G-Sibs increased capital buffers, mainly due to SLR exemption
ECB paper offers model of interbank contagion
Researchers say policymakers can use their work to prevent and manage financial crises
Policymakers should consider adjusting ECB’s target – BdF paper
Lower eurozone r* points to adjustment of monetary policy strategy, researchers find
EU banks that were stress-tested reduced credit risk – ECB paper
Banks that were subject to 2016 stress tests reduced risk compared with control group, researchers find
BoE paper explores liquidity traps with ‘Hank’ model
Precautionary savings can send economy into deflationary spiral, authors find
Danish central bank urges use of payments data in forecasts
Data provides good forecasts during normal times, but deteriorates in stressed conditions