Research
Weather affects eurozone inflation, ECB paper finds
Bloc’s four biggest economies respond differently to changes in temperature and variability
Youth disconnect could create ‘less-skilled workforce’ – Dallas Fed
Declining labour force participation is detaching younger people from work, authors find
IMF research emphasises link between inflation and fiscal policy
Authors call for spending cuts and large, targeted wealth transfers to the poor
Tech could shake up international monetary system – IMF paper
Inertia likely to maintain status quo in near term, but impact of technology “highly uncertain”
Long-term unemployment can affect inflation – BoE paper
Non-linear Phillips curve helps explain finding that breaks with previous literature
BIS paper warns of worsening fiscal and monetary trade-offs
Many governments have sought to shield consumers from price rises, at a high budgetary cost
Dallas Fed warns of global housing ‘slide’
US and German markets are out of touch with fundamentals, authors say
Easing supply chain pressures could bring US inflation below 4%
But authors with the New York Fed warn a further oil shock could keep inflation near 6% in 2023
Non-banks tend to cut lending during crises – BIS paper
Evidence from syndicated lending suggests growth of non-banks could exacerbate crises
Macro-pru tightening can cause ‘risk leakages’, ECB paper finds
Policy-makers should tighten household limits early in the credit cycle, researchers say
Sovereign debt restructuring can be improved – paper
Authors recommend changes to GDP-linked debt and process of loss sharing
Investors improve at funding high-impact climate tech – paper
After widespread failures investing in first wave of climate tech, investors are having more of an impact
Bank of Canada paper tests ‘inflation tax’ in lab experiment
Experimental design could be used to test other aspects of monetary policy, researchers say
Bitcoin price does not respond to market signals – paper
Researchers find cryptocurrency value “orthogonal” to most economic indicators
Pandemic fiscal support had rapid inflationary impact – NBER paper
Inflationary impact of support to consumers was “quick to ensue, but moderate”, authors find
Text analysis of news spots Chinese financial risk, says paper
Researchers’ model uses machine learning to assess thousands of newspaper articles
Credit constraints have small impact on housing market – paper
RBA economist revisits the effects of down payments on housing prices
‘Neglect’ of money growth may have harmed forecasts – paper
Study finds forecasters make larger errors when money growth is highest
Expected loss model can cut capital procyclicality – BoE paper
New approach to loan loss provisioning can improve stability of capital and leverage ratios
BIS paper proposes new capital flow management tool
Offsetting capital flows rather than blocking them could be the optimal choice, authors say
BoE says rush to sell could undermine insurance stability
Supervisor questions whether some firms’ stress-test assumptions are “realistic”
‘Funding for lending’ may suffer side effects – BIS committee
Survey finds lending schemes tend to be effective, but firms may become dependent
Capital buffers not all working as intended – BoE paper
Some banks raised rates and contracted credit supply during the Covid-19 crisis
“Make-up” strategies may boost monetary policy, says paper
Price-level and average inflation targeting regimes stabilise import-related inflation, researchers find