Bundesbank research looks at German banks’ forecasts

forecasting

An analysis by the Bundesbank has questioned the effectiveness of the forecasting by Germany’s small and medium-sized banks.

The discussion paper, How good are banks’ forecasts?, uses data that the banks were required to submit under the country’s low-interest rate environment surveys. These surveys asked banks to forecast their financial statements and give their expectations on interest rate movements over four periods: 2015–19, 2017–2021, 2019–2023 and 2022–26.

The authors, Lotta Heckmann

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