Bundesbank research looks at German banks’ forecasts

Economists measure lenders’ effectiveness at planning for rates cuts


An analysis by the Bundesbank has questioned the effectiveness of the forecasting by Germany’s small and medium-sized banks.

The discussion paper, How good are banks’ forecasts?, uses data that the banks were required to submit under the country’s low-interest rate environment surveys. These surveys asked banks to forecast their financial statements and give their expectations on interest rate movements over four periods: 2015–19, 2017–2021, 2019–2023 and 2022–26.

The authors, Lotta Heckmann

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