The Americas
Geopolitics is fastest-rising research topic for economists
Research economists are most widely judged on their output of papers
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
Working group minutes: macro-pru calibration challenges
Many central banks are struggling to get enough data, particularly on borrowers
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year
Third of economics departments say staffing ‘barely sufficient’
Forecasting, policy analysis and research are economists’ top duties
Economists’ average annual salary rises
Incomes have some relation with GDP per capita and central bank size
Economics staff strength increases over two-year period
Departmental size as share of central banks’ workforce widens to 7.7%, on average
Federal Reserve holds rates with three members dissenting
Hammack, Kashkari and Logan push for 25bp rise in what FOMC chair says was a collegial ‘family fight’
MBS convexity hedging: back with a vengeance, or ghost story?
More bonds now sit with active hedgers but market is split on whether flows can move US rates again
Have regulators gone soft on enforcement? (And should we care?)
US agencies are scaling back punishments for technical rule breaches, raising concerns that small but crucial risks may be ignored
How US regulators could stop management driving Camels
Supporters flag disconnect from other indicators; critics fear early warnings will go unnoticed
US regulators throw banks a curveball on committed credit lines
New Basel III charge on undrawn facilities will hit largest banks in areas like fund finance and credit cards
Fed will ‘follow the law’ and ‘the data’ – Warsh
Chair tells Congress his aim is to keep US central bank out of politics
Cross-border co-operation stronger for non-central bank supervisors
Roughly one-fifth of central banks lack supervisory college membership
Bowman shuns CECL. Friends say it just needs a little help
How far should FASB go in reforming credit-loss accounting rules?
Supervisors report capital and liquidity resilience across banks
Basel II remains most adopted global standard among respondents
NY Fed study points to more tariff-related inflation in US
Survey shows many firms plan to pass on further costs to customers over coming months
Rajan, King and Stein to head Warsh’s Fed task forces
Former governors among experts asked to help ‘advance the cause’ of US monetary policy
Size and business model are key elements of risk profile
Supervisors tend to inspect systemic banks once a year
Supervisors report sharp increase in AI adoption
Summarisation ranks as topmost area of application, with biggest use in larger teams