The Americas
Foreign exchange interventions jump 71% year on year
One in four central banks uses derivatives for FX intervention
Managers predict moderate AI impact on reserves
But many reserve managers see high future potential for AI
Staff strength and salary associated with size of reserves
Managers report greater satisfaction with non-staff resources than staffing levels
Counting the cost of central bank staff errors
Risk managers expose underlying causes and outline measures to curtail incidents
High debt raises ‘macro-financial’ risks in Americas – BIS study
Bulletin says interest costs can result in risk premia feeding into inflation expectations
Geopolitics is fastest-rising research topic for economists
Research economists are most widely judged on their output of papers
Economists devote up to half of working hours to research
Higher-paid research economists tend to spend more time on own research
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
Working group minutes: macro-pru calibration challenges
Many central banks are struggling to get enough data, particularly on borrowers
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year
Third of economics departments say staffing ‘barely sufficient’
Forecasting, policy analysis and research are economists’ top duties
Economists’ average annual salary rises
Incomes have some relation with GDP per capita and central bank size
Economics staff strength increases over two-year period
Departmental size as share of central banks’ workforce widens to 7.7%, on average
Federal Reserve holds rates with three members dissenting
Hammack, Kashkari and Logan push for 25bp rise in what FOMC chair says was a collegial ‘family fight’
MBS convexity hedging: back with a vengeance, or ghost story?
More bonds now sit with active hedgers but market is split on whether flows can move US rates again
Have regulators gone soft on enforcement? (And should we care?)
US agencies are scaling back punishments for technical rule breaches, raising concerns that small but crucial risks may be ignored
How US regulators could stop management driving Camels
Supporters flag disconnect from other indicators; critics fear early warnings will go unnoticed
US regulators throw banks a curveball on committed credit lines
New Basel III charge on undrawn facilities will hit largest banks in areas like fund finance and credit cards