The Americas
Volume of cash in circulation averages less than 5bn notes
Proportion of payments made using cash averages 40% in past year
Investors price in sanctions risk for US equities – study
NY Fed authors say geoeconomic risk driven by firms’ exposure to sanctioned countries’ supply chains
Stablecoins issuers’ debt wish not enough to meet US needs – study
SF Fed authors say demand for Treasuries will be much smaller than government’s requirements
AI not having major impact on US graduate jobs – study
NBER researchers say changes in employment market are not statistically significant
Third parties manage roughly one-sixth of reserves
Compensation for external asset managers takes different forms across jurisdictions
Foreign exchange interventions jump 71% year on year
One in four central banks uses derivatives for FX intervention
Investment tranches account for half of reserves
Just one-fifth of central banks lack tranching mechanisms
Larger reserve holders operate longest portfolio duration
Duration among respondents holds steady at around two years, on average
Reserves exposure to non-SDR sovereign debt increases
US Treasuries and gold remain the most prominent asset classes
Managers predict moderate AI impact on reserves
But many reserve managers see high future potential for AI
Staff strength and salary associated with size of reserves
Managers report greater satisfaction with non-staff resources than staffing levels
Counting the cost of central bank staff errors
Risk managers expose underlying causes and outline measures to curtail incidents
High debt raises ‘macro-financial’ risks in Americas – BIS study
Bulletin says interest costs can result in risk premia feeding into inflation expectations
Geopolitics is fastest-rising research topic for economists
Research economists are most widely judged on their output of papers
Economists devote up to half of working hours to research
Higher-paid research economists tend to spend more time on own research
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
Working group minutes: macro-pru calibration challenges
Many central banks are struggling to get enough data, particularly on borrowers
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year