Federal Reserve System
Weak jobs report sends dollar tumbling
Report shows nonfarm payrolls increased by just 142,000 in September, while July and August totals have been revised down; dollar drops by almost 1% against euro
Fed policy has ‘little impact’ on labour market, paper says
Paper published by Minneapolis Fed argues there is little the Fed can do to restore the level of employment relative to the population that prevailed before the crisis
Chicago Fed president wants more evidence of inflation
Evans backs an ‘extra-patient approach’ to monetary policy as he airs concerns over inflation outlook and ‘asymmetric’ risks; assesses economy more cautiously than FOMC colleagues
Fed board approves changes to same-day ACH service
Institutions that receive payments through the ACH network will have to participate in same-day service, but will be compensated by a new interbank fee levied on originators
People: Philadelphia Fed appoints new supervision head; Bank of Russia takes on HSBC economist
Philadelphia Fed announces William Spaniel as head of supervision, regulation and credit department; Alexander Morozov joins Bank of Russia as head of research and forecasting; and more
Fed presidents talk up prospect of 2015 hike
Richmond, St Louis and San Francisco reserve bank presidents offer thoughts in wake of last week’s decision to hold rates; all suggest a hike in October or December will likely be appropriate
Fed holds off rate increase but outlook largely unchanged
The majority of Fed governors and presidents still expect a hike this year, but concerns over global outlook and domestic inflation prompt FOMC to hold fire for now
Japan lashed by the Fed
The Abe government is using a questionable reading of history to justify policies that are increasing rather than reducing the gloom over Japan’s prospects
BIS research finds US policy spillovers ‘significant’
Article examines the spillovers from short-term, long-term and policy rates in the US on a host of emerging and advanced economies; impact is economically and statistically significant
Kocherlakota considers impact of public debt on long-run interest rate
Minneapolis Fed president says an increase in public debt could help increase long-run neutral rate, allowing the FOMC to raise rates quicker, but it would come with costs
People: Top EBA officials backed for new terms; Philadelphia Fed first VP to retire
Andrea Enria and Adam Farkas handed new five-year terms by EBA’s board of supervisors; Philadelphia Fed announces Blake Prichard will retire early 2016; and more
US unemployment falls to 5.1% despite drop in jobs growth
Richmond Fed president describes it as a ‘right-down-the-middle-of-the-fairway’ unemployment report, as he spells out why the time is right to begin raising interest rates
Boston Fed president compares forthcoming rate hikes with past tightening cycles
Eric Rosengren finds this tightening cycle is likely to differ from those of 1994 and 2004, in that rates are set to rise more gradually and stop at a lower level
IMF urges central banks to retain easy monetary policy
Ahead of the G20 meeting in Turkey the IMF prepares a briefing on policy challenges; tells central banks to prevent real interest rates from ‘rising prematurely’
Fischer upbeat on US inflation outlook at Jackson Hole
Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer says there is ‘good reason’ to believe inflation will move higher as impact of rise in dollar and fall in oil prices dissipates
Case for higher inflation targets takes a knock at Jackson Hole
Thomas Jordan warns higher inflation ‘likely to be associated with considerable costs’ in longer run; academics see little benefit in the Federal Reserve targeting 4%
Economics needs a ‘replication journal’, paper argues
Natural and life scientists spend considerable time attempting to replicate the results of earlier research; economics could benefit from a similar approach, St Louis Fed paper argues
Fischer watched for rate views as Jackson Hole concludes
Symposium at Kansas City Fed closes with panel discussion featuring Carney, Constâncio, Fischer and Rajan on Saturday; one early session considers ‘international price system’
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
FOMC inching towards rate hike, minutes hint
Minutes of July meeting show some members are still concerned that labour market and inflation data are not strong enough for a hike, but several think the economy is nearly ready
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
Dallas Fed picks former Goldman banker to replace Fisher
Robert Kaplan to take over as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, bringing experience in academia and as a senior executive at Goldman Sachs
People: Wilson follows Harker to Philadelphia Fed; ESM promotes two
Patricia Wilson follows Joseph Harker to the Philadelphia Fed to take over as chief of staff; ESM promotes risk and economic analysis deputies to top jobs; and more
Fed comes under renewed fire as governance structure challenged
An under-staffed board, embarrassing leaks and outspoken regional presidents pose challenges to the Fed as it seeks to exit loose monetary policies. Is it a good time to review its governance structure?