Lower growth, inflation forecast in US - survey
The largest downward revisions to growth occur in the next two quarters, when the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, down from their previous estimate of 2.9 percent, and 2.7 percent in the first quarter of next year, down from 2.9 percent.
On an annual-average over annual-average basis, real GDP will grow 3.3 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2007. Previously, the forecasters expected growth of 3.4 percent in 2006 and 2.8 percent in 2007. The forecasters have reduced their estimates for growth in 2007 in each of the surveys this year.
Measured by either the rate of change in the consumer price index or the price index for GDP, the short-run inflation outlook looks better now than it did in the last survey.
The forecasters expect CPI inflation to average 2.4 percent in 2006 (fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter), down almost a percentage point from their previous estimate of 3.3 percent, and 2.6 percent in 2007, unchanged from the estimate of three months ago. Click here for a discussion of this survey
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