For immediate release: Wednesday, April 8, 2026, 07:00 London time 

Central bank reserve managers vote geopolitics top risk in 2026

• Inflation and interest rates are expected to be the most consequential factor affecting reserve management over the next 5 years. 
• The Central Banking survey of 101 central banks, managing more than $9.5 trillion in global reserves, also asked about gold investments and its expected price at the end of the year, FX interventions, AI and the effect of stablecoins on reserves, and whether the US dollar is still the safe-haven currency. 
• The survey includes exclusive intelligence on geopolitical risk and asset allocation, active management and liquidity management, as well as detailed breakdowns of central banks’ approaches to investing in over 20 reserve currencies.

Geoeconomics and the US dollar 

Geopolitical tensions are the most significant risk that reserve managers face in 2026. Of 99 central banks, 69 (69.7%) voted it their top concern. This is significantly higher than when geopolitical escalation was seen as the top risk in 2024 by 35.6% of 87 reserve managers, when the geopolitical situation in the Middle East threatened supply chains via the Red Sea. This year, the survey was conducted between January and March 2026. Conflict in the Middle East saw significant escalation on the 28th of February, and the final survey response was received on March 6. “Ongoing and emerging geopolitical conflicts are a major risk because they influence trade, capital flows, commodity prices and financial market correlations,” said the reserve manager of a central bank in the Middle East.

Inflation and interest rates remained the most important factors expected to affect reserve management over the next five years. Of 98 respondents to this question, 51 (52.0%) ranked it highest, down from 76.4% of 89 respondents last year. Geopolitics was seen as the second most significant factor over the next five years – voted as the primary influence by 29.6% of 98 respondents, up from 14.6% of 89 respondents in 2025. Reserve managers cited rising geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions risk and geoeconomic competition.

US policy is testing trust in the dollar. Of 95 reserve managers, most said they either strongly agree (22, or 23.2%) or agree (54, or 56.8%) that the US dollar is still the safe-haven currency. However, a number of those that agreed expressed that its position is being challenged. A reserve manager of a central bank in the Asia-Pacific said: “Over the next five years, global FX reserves managers will rigorously assess whether the US dollar’s role as the dominant global reserve currency continues, amid rising global fragmentation.” Fifteen reserve managers (15.8%) said they are neutral on the dollar’s safe-haven status and 4 (4.2%) disagreed. The “diminishing faith” of investors in US policies has affected the US dollar, said a reserve manager of a central bank in Europe. 

The US bond market has suffered a significant markdown in investor confidence among central bank reserve managers year on year. This year, 32.9% of 85 respondents think US bonds will outperform other Group of Seven economies and China, down from 54.3% in 2025 and 71.1% in 2024. 

Gold

The mean estimate for the price of gold at the end of 2026 among the 60 central banks that answered this question was $5,354 per ounce. 

More central banks invest in gold (69 out of 95 respondents, or 72.6%), up slightly from 69.4% of 85 respondents in 2025. Fifteen central banks said they are considering investing in gold now (15.8%), and 3 (or 3.2%) said they would consider investing in 5–10 years’ time. Just 8 (8.4%) said they have no interest in investing. 

Two of 89 central banks (2.2%) reported investing in silver, with 3 (3.4%) saying they are considering investing now, and 4 (4.5%) said they would consider investing in 5–10 years’ time. 

FX interventions

Of 94 central banks, 47 (50.0%) intervened in FX markets in the last 12 months. This result reflects the finding last year that close to half of central banks intended to increase their FX reserves for possible FX interventions in 2026.

Removing eurozone central banks from analysis, the proportion of central banks that intervened in FX markets in the last 12 months rose to 47 out of 80 central banks (58.8%).

By region, central banks in the Asia-Pacific (12, or 75.0%) were most likely to have intervened in FX markets, followed by central banks in Africa (15, 68.2%) and the Middle East (4, or 66.7%). Around 40–50% of central banks in Europe and the Americas also reported conducting FX interventions. 

Euro

Views on the euro this year have flipped to more positive among the world’s reserve managers. Of 78 reserve managers, 53 (67.9%) said it is a more attractive currency. In contrast, last year, 59.4% of 69 respondents said it was a less attractive currency. This finding still holds when eurozone and central banks in Europe are excluded from analysis, with 54.5% of 55 central banks viewing the euro as a more attractive currency this year.

Stablecoins and bitcoin reserve funds

A key tenor of US policy is that stablecoins will drive demand for US Treasuries, thereby supporting the position of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. However, central banks on the whole question this assumption, with much depending on developing stablecoin credibility. Of 90 respondents to the question of whether stablecoins would support the role of the USD as a reserve currency, 49 (54.4%) said they are not sure and 27 (30.0%) disagreed. Just 14 (15.6%) said they agree.

In terms of direct exposure to stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, no central banks reported having made any investments, although 6 central banks out of 86 respondents (7.0%) reported considering investing in stablecoins in 5–10 years’ time, and 4 out of 88 central banks (4.5%) said they were considering investing in other cryptocurrencies in that period – compared with 2 saying the same for each asset class last year – signifying a possible small shift sentiment at a minority of institutions.

Just over half of central banks are against a strategic bitcoin reserve fund (53.4% out of 88 respondents), but a significant number (45.5%) are unsure – again, signifying a move towards uncertainty, rather than outright rejection. Last year, 59.5% of 84 respondents were against, and 39.3% were unsure.

Of the 26 central banks that view digital currencies as an increasingly credible asset class, the vast majority (23, or 88.5%) pointed to central bank digital currencies as the preferred choice.

AI

Reserve managers were split on whether slow adoption of artificial intelligence could put reserve managers at a disadvantage, although a narrow majority of 91 respondents disagreed (49, or 53.8%). Among proponents, AI is considered essential for market intelligence and algorithmic trading, risk monitoring, scenario analysis and predictive forecasting, as well as portfolio optimisation, where timely and data-driven insights are increasingly valuable. However, reserve managers still expressed that careful implementation is important to avoid overreliance on models and ensure proper governance, controlling for security and black-box risks. 

The survey is the first chapter in the new book HSBC Reserve Management Trends 2026, which is published by Central Banking Publications and sponsored by HSBC. It is the  22^nd edition in a series of annual reviews of central banks’ reserve management. The survey was carried out between January and March 2026. In total, 101 reserve managers, responsible for over $9.5 trillion in global reserves, participated. It also includes questions on geopolitical risk and asset allocation, active management and liquidity management, as well as detailed breakdowns of central banks’ approaches to investing in over 20 reserve currencies. 

Commenting on the survey, Bernard Altschuler, Global Head of Central Bank Coverage at HSBC, said: “The survey highlights that geopolitical risk is resulting in diversification of portfolios, counterparties and location of assets. However, the US$ remains the dominant reserve currency with 78% of respondents predicting that de-dollarisation will be a gradual process. Gold is in focus, with 39% considering increasing holdings in the next year. The elevated price and volatility have also resulted in 37% planning to be more active in managing their gold reserves.” 

Media copy of the survey chapter – available on request

A media copy of the survey chapter is available on request. For more information, contact Joasia E. Popowicz, Editor: +44 20 7316 9133; j.e.popowicz@centralbanking.com 

For HSBC enquiries, contact Charlotte Parker, Media Relations: charlotte.parker@hsbc.com  

Notes for Editors 

1. For details of survey respondents, see the ‘Profile of respondents’ section in the survey chapter, pages 4–6.
2. The full print edition of HSBC Reserve Management Trends 2026, sponsored by HSBC, will be published on May 5, 2026, by Central Banking Publications.
3. Central Banking Publications, a division of Infopro Digital, is dedicated to the reporting and analysis of central banks and international financial institutions. Since its foundation in 1990, Central Banking journal has been the only regular, independent publication for and about central banks. It is supported by an Editorial Advisory Board that includes the former governors of many of the world’s leading central banks, as well as Nobel Prize-winning economists. Central Banking also operates the Central Banking Institute, a membership club for central banks comprising Benchmarking, Insight and Professional Development. Central Banking is read by subscribers in more than 140 countries. See centralbanking.com for more details.