Central Bank of Colombia paper develops early warning model of credit booms

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A working paper, published by the Bank of Colombia on July 23, attempts to improve existing models of credit booms by including macroeconomic aggregates as well as indicators of credit growth used in previous studies.

The authors, Alexander Guarín, Andrés González, Daphné Skandalis and Daniela Sánchez, analyse data from six Latin American countries over the period 1996–2011 to estimate the probability of credit booms. The paper finds that when macroeconomic data is included, the predictive power

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