Macroeconomics
US facing new challenges as Covid cases surge – Powell
Powell warns of public confidence hit as US infections soar past previous peak
Research looks at possible East Asian trade deals
US and China stand to be worst off if trade war continues, Peterson Institute researchers find
IMF outlook worsens as pandemic intensifies
Fund warns of medium-term challenges for fiscal consolidation and trade
Covid-19 and oil: a tale of three countries
Oil-dependent nations are facing a crisis on two fronts. Central banks must now strike a balance between keeping inflation in check and restoring growth
Bernanke and Yellen join call for new fiscal stimulus in US
Former Fed chairs among 148 economists warning of “disastrous” effects if Congress fails to act
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
High US inflation should not be ruled out
A prolonged health crisis raises the risk that supply-side factors, monetary expansion and rising personal savings could stoke hidden inflationary pressures
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
US unemployment falls sharply in May
Unemployment rate declined to 13.3% from 14.7% in April, despite widespread fears it would rise
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper
US disinflation accelerated in April
Core inflation sees steepest drop since the 9/11 attacks
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
European Commission pushes for €750 billion budget expansion
Shared financial resources designed to support weakest EU members while spreading cost
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
Covid-19 biggest threat to Fed mandate ‘in our lifetimes’ – Clarida
Fed may not provide further forward guidance until September, Richard Clarida says
Lagarde welcomes Franco-German fund plan
Covid-19 response fund would be drawn from common EU budget
Lower-income households feel worst of Covid-19 economic shock – Fed survey
Nearly 40% of low-earning households faced at least one job loss in March, survey finds
Pandemic debt will test policy-makers – Richmond Fed research
Authorities may opt for “financial repression” policies with central banks keeping rates low – paper
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
Could engineering higher inflation help manage fiscal deficits?
Fiscal and monetary co-ordination could be a workable option for the Covid-19 recovery, Chicago Fed paper finds
ECB research finds Phillips curve still matters
Underlying relations are complicated, but slack and expectations still drive prices, economists say
MAS rolls out second relief package for individuals
Individuals can defer repayments of student and car loans as MAS aims to ease debt burden amid growing uncertainty
Lower refinancing can dampen economic recovery – Fed research
US mortgage refinancing activity remained muted after falling during 2008 crisis, researchers find
Fed expands main street lending plans
Central bank faces criticism for appearing to respond to oil and gas lobbying