‘Supercore inflation’ is a key indicator, Fed paper argues

san francisco fed

“Supercore inflation”, which covers core service prices excluding housing, is a key US economic indicator, but it is unclear how it is behaving, according to research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve.

The paper’s authors – Sylvain Leduc, Daniel Wilson and Cindy Zhao – found that at the beginning of the pandemic, supercore inflation’s sensitivity to unemployment grew, because of strong demand for service workers.

Whether the US’s supercore inflation is acting now like it did in 2021 or

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