Biden stimulus will not move inflation much – Chicago Fed paper
Research finds most models predict very limited and short-term increases
Research published by the Chicago Fed finds that the American Rescue Plan (ARP), the recently passed stimulus package, will likely have only a small and short-term impact on inflation.
The authors – Francesco Bianchi, Jonas Fisher and Leonardo Melosi – say only a belief that the US will abandon orthodox policies would cause a substantial spike. They consider such an event unlikely.
The paper uses four Phillips-curve models to predict the stimulus’s influence on prices. In three of these models
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economic modelling
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review should be the start of more profound discussion at the BoE
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
ECB to explore nature-related risk in environmental plan
Climate change and biodegradation are “two sides of the same coin”
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast
Profit now key driver of inflation, BIS research finds
Recent surge in prices “fundamentally different” to that of the 1970s
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics