National production gaps don’t drive stock markets, says Swiss paper


A working paper published by the Swiss National Bank, on October 22, says national stock markets around the world do not represent mirror images of US business cycles: rather, they are driven by global business cycle risk.

The author, Thomas Nitschka, examines the link between national production gaps and stock market returns, and concludes it is global, not country-specific, business cycle-related risk that is the key influence. The results demonstrate the interconnectivity of the G-7 countries

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