Swiss paper considers how GDP is best forecast

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A Swiss National Bank working paper, published today (January 7), says early GDP estimates should be made using direct, aggregated forecasts rather than breaking the measure down into its sub-components.

The authors, Katja Drechsel and Rolf Scheufele, find "only limited evidence" that disaggregation leads to better predictive performance, and the extra effort required to specify models for each component of GDP is not worth making.

In cases when a "huge amount" of information is available, the

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