Estimating monetary policy rules based on economic data can be inconclusive, according to a paper on the Federal Reserve's policy conduct from the 1980s onwards, published in November by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). The authors argue, contrary to previous research, that the Fed's adherence to the Taylor rule in setting policy from the 1980s onwards cannot be confirmed, and find instead that an optimal target rule is the only model consistent with the evidence.

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