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BoE paper on low inflation since 1999

In a paper published on Thursday 27 January, 'Why has inflation been so low since 1999?',Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Stephen Nickell said looking to the future, there seems no reason why UK domestic goods price inflation will fall significantly below current levels and, very recently, it appears that imported goods prices have stopped falling.

"The continued strength of the world economy will imply further upward pressure on the world prices of traded goods which suggests that this recent turn round in import prices will not reverse and that import prices will start to rise. Overall, this indicates that we are entering a period when both domestic and imported goods prices are going to rise. So, unless there is a further squeeze on distribution margins, it seems likely that CPI goods price inflation will move into positive territory, settling down at a relatively low but positive level. This is consistent with CPI inflation moving close to target over the next couple of years."

Click here to read the paper "Why has inflation been so low since 1999?" on the Bank of England's website

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