An inflation forecasting model for the eurozone

The Banque de France is building tools to predict euro-area inflation as well as price levels in the national economy.

In a research paper published this month, the central bank puts forward a simple model of short-term developments in inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of the single currency area. The model, which favours an empirical rather than a purely theoretical approach, includes seven equations explaining the total HICP of the euro area and some of

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