Monetary Policy
Central bank expects Serbian FX market to stabilise
National Bank of Serbia reveals it sold €1.8 billion and bought €260 million at various points last year in an attempt to ‘ease short-term volatility’ in exchange rate
FOMC member says ‘very low' inflation provides ‘ample justification' for patience on rate hike
Eric Rosengren highlights ‘unusual set of conditions' as Fed looks to normalise policy stance; says low inflation globally may prompt an atypically gradual normalisation process
SNB expects profit of $39 billion for 2014
Foreign currency positions responsible for most of the profit for Swiss National Bank, which increased its forex reserves by 7% in December following exchange rate pressure
Riksbank ready to launch new measures ‘at short notice'
Swedish central bank prepared to launch unconventional measures in February, minutes reveal; board member says currency interventions inappropriate as other countries struggle
Fed signals rate hike despite drop in inflation
Minutes suggest Fed will tighten policy despite expecting inflation to remain below target for 'some time'; rate hike unlikely for 'at least the next couple of meetings'
Bank of Jamaica set for new powers in 2015
Central bank on track to assume responsibility for financial stability; will start conducting annual reviews to track ‘readiness’ for full-fledged inflation targeting
Eurozone inflation goes negative with QE looming
Annual HICP inflation falls to -0.2% in December due largely to plummeting oil prices; expectations rising for ECB to expand asset purchases on January 22
Polish paper examines impact of different loan types on policy efficacy
Researchers from Polish and Norwegian central banks consider how the different characteristics of residential mortgage markets influence the workings of monetary and macro-prudential policy
State Bank of Vietnam devalues dong as dollar rises
Vietnam’s central bank devalues the dong by 1% against the dollar, in a move to create ‘sustainable stability’ in the forex market
Bank of Korea paper examines global liquidity drivers
Researchers at central bank explore transmission of global liquidity shocks from advanced to emerging market economies; warns there is no ‘silver bullet’ response
Sri Lanka reduces inflation target range by 200bp
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka will aim to keep inflation between 2% and 4% in 2015, after a fall in prices and in some key commodities. From 2016 on, the bank will aim for 3% to 5%
Impact of ECB unconventional policies depends on bank capitalisation, finds Belgian paper
ECB crisis measures have greater impact on GDP growth in countries where banks are well capitalised, researchers find
BIS paper finds US spillovers impact through long-term rates
Researchers show US monetary policy spills over into Asian economies mainly through long-term interest rates and suggest policy options
Bernanke laments scripted policy meetings
Former Fed chair tells Mervyn King that meetings are ‘deadly boring’ as most of the work is done in advance; both men reflect on the crisis for BBC Radio 4’s Today programme
BoE research identifies strong impact from long-term unemployment on inflation
Working paper finds evidence that models incorporating linear Phillips curves are underestimating the effect of long-term unemployment on wage inflation
German investments would generate ‘beneficial' regional spillovers, finds IMF paper
The expansionary effect of higher public investment in Germany ‘substantially strengthened' when supported by an accommodative monetary policy stance, according to working paper
Fed changes forward guidance
Janet Yellen says FOMC ‘can be patient' in normalising monetary policy, but says new language does not signal change in outlook; Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota dissent
Bank of South Sudan keen for exchange rate reform
IMF report finds authorities keen to create a single exchange rate, launch two-way fixed rate auctions and establish an interbank market for foreign exchange
Banque de France paper says asset purchases may struggle to anchor rates
Working paper suggests asset purchases could be a way to anchor interbank rates, but the policy faces a number of difficulties; absorbing excess liquidity another option
Optimal policy changes as financial inclusion rises, BIS paper finds
Working paper presents evidence that both output volatility and inflation volatility fall as financial inclusion rises, but monetary policy will optimally lean more towards controlling prices
ECB to publish unattributed ‘accounts’ of policy discussions
European Central Bank will publish ‘accounts’ four weeks after every meeting; they are designed to improve the general public’s understanding of the governing council’s thought process
Swiss National Bank introduces negative rates
In the face of growing pressure on the Swiss franc, the SNB imposes an interest rate of -0.25% on sight deposits held at the central bank
Central Bank of Paraguay reduces inflation target to 4.5%
After keeping inflation around 5% for the past three years, the central bank will now aim to shackle it at 4.5% in 2015 and 2016
Bank of Israel researchers propose exchange rate-based forward guidance
Researchers say forward guidance has a mixed track record, especially in small open economies, but linking guidance to external factors would help improve credibility