Monetary Policy
Denmark eases pressure on banks but stays tough on krone peg
National Bank of Denmark raises limits on current account deposits to ease pressure on banks after forex interventions, but stresses speculators will lose if they continue to attack the krone peg
IMF paper warns against ‘overburdening’ LatAm central banks
Working paper studies evolution of central banks in Latin America, and warns against jeopardising the credibility they currently enjoy by handing them new mandates
Finnish paper charts evolution of PBoC policy since 1999
Discussion paper asks whether China has shifted toward a ‘price-based policy’ and finds the PBoC has become more responsive to changes in economic conditions in recent years
Lagarde tells emerging markets to prepare for US rate hike
Emerging markets can expect trouble if the Fed raises rates this year, says IMF managing director; BIS research implies economies can harness the benefits of spillovers with the right policy mix
BoJ sees inflation remaining at 0% for 'the time being'
Central bank to fall short of 2% inflation target in April as consumer prices stagnate on back of lower oil prices; more easing unlikely, says analyst
BoJ’s easing boosts inequality, warns IMF paper
Working paper finds attempts to meet Japan’s 2% inflation target are increasing income growth and inequality; calls for structural reform to make this growth more inclusive
Finnish paper: DSGE model with shadow banks sheds light on China
Bank of Finland discussion paper models Chinese monetary policy transmission using a DSGE model augmented with shadow banking and interest rate controls
IMF paper sees lower inflation boosting Indian savings
Working paper says a ‘sustained reduction in inflation’ would help create interest rate environment necessary to boost corporate profitability and encourage household savings
Central Bank of Brazil sees inflation gathering pace
Progress made in the fight against inflation is not yet ‘sufficient’, according to minutes from monetary policy committee meeting last week
Carney confident of returning inflation to target in two years
BoE governor sees risk that global low inflation and strength of UK currency could weigh on prices for ‘some time’, but is confident the central bank is ‘on track’ for 2% inflation
Won at 20-month low following record BoK rate cut
Korean central bank cuts benchmark interest rate to 1.75%, an all-time low, amid slowing growth and inflation; euro weakness 'a consideration' posits analyst
ECB paper models Philips curve from professional forecasts
Working paper finds the curve consistent with professional forecasts has flattened since the financial crisis, with the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakening
McCafferty: BoE is right to look through oil price decline
The sharp fall of oil prices will have a temporary impact on inflation, since ‘supply rather than demand has been the dominant factor’, says McCafferty
BoJ’s Shirai: households sceptical of need for 2% inflation
Board member says better communication needed to explain to cash-strapped households why 2% inflation will be good for them in the long run
Weakest economic data in years puts pressure on PBoC
Chinese rate cuts ‘imminent' as some of the worst figures since the financial crisis indicate economic slowdown is sharper than predicted, analysts say
Turkey intervenes in FX markets as lira slide continues
Central bank caught between shrill government rhetoric and jumpy markets, cutting FX deposit rates and launching liquidity operations in an attempt to halt the sliding lira
Carney: some shocks might warrant lower inflation target
BoE governor says persistent supply shock could justify a change in the inflation target, but stresses this is a ‘pure hypothetical’; optimistic over long-term picture for productivity
Colombian paper analyses impact of bank size and risk on policy transmission
Commercial banks with less credit risk on their books can ‘maintain a relatively good growth in the supply of credit’ when faced with a monetary policy shock, research finds
IMF sees deflation threat to Western Balkan recovery
Special report on economic transition in Western Balkans identifies deflation spilling over from eurozone as risk to recovery in the region; most of the countries experiencing negative inflation
Colombian paper finds structure matters in modelling oil shocks
Working paper finds evidence that the impact of an oil price shock on an oil-exporting country such as Colombia can be large, but depends on the structure of the economy
RBA research sets out stress test for households
Model emphasises dangers of relying on aggregate measures of household indebtedness when assessing financial stability and setting monetary policy
Poland publishes forecasts behind ‘final’ rate cut
Economics Institute within central bank lowers forecast for inflation in 2015 to -0.5%, down from 1% in November; MPC says last week’s cut ‘concludes’ its easing cycle
Ingves lays out toolbox at Riksbank’s disposal
Swedish central bank governor says he ‘will do more if necessary’ to fight deflation, arguing ‘there are several ways to make monetary policy more expansionary’
Central Bank of Honduras revises inflation target to 5.5%
After signing an economic agreement with the IMF last year, and in consideration of lower oil prices, the Central Bank of Honduras has adjusted its inflation target for 2015 by 50 basis points