Monetary Policy
Jackson Hole: ECB and NY Fed economists examine ideal operational frameworks for policy
Simon Potter praises paper by ECB’s Ulrich Bindseil for in-depth analysis, but also highlights a number of areas for further research
Interest rates to remain flat for longer period of time – Chile minutes
It might be necessary to “postpone” normalisation of monetary policy, latest minutes from Central Bank of Chile show; interest rates to stay at 3.5% for “prolonged period” of time
BoE deputy clashes with academics over use of leverage ratio
Shafik disagrees with paper that argues leverage ratio “harms” pass-through of monetary policy – leverage ratio is “here to stay” says deputy governor
Yellen: future policy-makers may need new tools to tackle recessions
Fed chair says equilibrium rates may not be high enough for rate cuts to deal with all eventualities, so US policy-makers may need to think more laterally about their options
Signs of ‘de-anchoring’ inflation expectations in eurozone – ECB paper
Study finds professional forecasts are paying more attention to ECB inflation projections and less to the target; authors suggest “extensive use of forward guidance” could help
Unconventional monetary policy should be supported on structural and fiscal fronts – ECB paper
Authors examine the effects of supply- and demand-side policies; results point to “positive synergies” between policies
Anticipation effects can make lower bound a self-fulfilling prophecy – BoJ paper
New Keynesian model implies an economy can be drawn on to the zero lower bound more quickly when people expect it; negative rates have only a small impact on duration
Central Bank of Iceland changes course with 50bp cut
Reversal of tightening cycle reflects concern inflation is not rising as expected, in part because of the strength of the króna; growth still forecast to continue above trend
Tightening policy during slowdown is not ideal, but necessary – Sarb governor
More fiscal or monetary stimulus will not generate growth in South Africa, says Kganyago, who instead stresses inflation outcomes need to be lowered
Mervyn King on Brexit, crisis supervision, economic rebalancing and reforming the IMF
The former Bank of England governor discusses Brexit, radical regulatory reform, the difficulties rebalancing the European and global economies and an overhaul of the International Monetary Fund
RBNZ’s Wheeler stands by inflation targeting
Despite a host of challenges for central banks, flexible inflation targeting remains the “most appropriate” framework for New Zealand’s monetary policy, governor says
Explicit communication from Sarb helped agents predict rate hikes – paper
Authors compare forecasts from 2013 and 2014 to identify whether specific terminology affected forecasting; “rising cycle” talk shaped expectations, paper shows
Federal Reserve Board seeks comms boost with Facebook page
Fed adopts its fifth form of social media in an effort to reach a greater audience, joining many other central banks expanding their communications in a similar direction
FOMC minutes show divisions on monetary policy
Kansas Fed president Esther George voted for an immediate rate rise at the FOMC meeting in July; other members were also hawkish but some preferred to keep monetary policy loose, minutes show
Mongolia’s central bank raises rates 450bp in bid to stop currency slide
Rate hike was prompted by fall in currency’s value since late June; central bank says it continues to see encouraging trends in currency flows
Japanese researchers model success and failure of international cooperation
Various factors can lead to cheating on global monetary policy cooperation, paper published by the BoJ finds – but careful design can help the agreement hold up
Atlanta Fed president ‘not prepared to rule out’ further rate rise this year
Despite “troubling” headline GDP growth figures, “final real sales” figures point to US economy maintaining momentum and heading for third-quarter growth, Dennis Lockhart says
Low inflation and tighter credit gave room for cut, RBA minutes show
Inflation looks likely to remain low for some time, board members note, while tighter lending standards make adverse effects of a cut less likely
San Francisco Fed chief calls for policy target re-think
John Williams calls for central banks to consider raising their inflation targets or replacing them with nominal GDP targets; lower natural interest rates seem “poised to stay”, he argues
Unconventional monetary policy does not rob the poor, Italian researchers argue
Studying the effects of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme on the wealth and incomes of 8,000 Italian households shows that the policies benefit the poorest, Bank of Italy paper argues
Danish research examines how central banks can impact market liquidity
Price of liquidity tends to change on days when central bank is operating in markets, with aggregate liquidity and payments activity also important, PhD thesis finds
Chinese authorities should introduce inflation target – IMF staff
Report by IMF staff sets out ‘key elements’ of transition to more market-based monetary framework; encourages explicit inflation goal and new intermediate target for policy
Chilean central bank changes guidance and keeps policy on hold
Central Bank of Chile removes reference to continued normalisation as inflation returns to target range; holds benchmark rate at 3.5%
RBNZ cuts rates and expects inflation to weaken further in short term
New Zealand central bank expresses concern over falling inflation in economy generally and rapidly rising prices in housing sector