Monetary Policy
Favourable inflation prompts 100bp cut in Brazilian interest rate
Central bank continues easing cycle as political uncertainty not feeding through to inflation; analysts expect another large cut this year
Evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies spells trouble for emerging markets – paper
Research explores the impact future monetary policy will have on emerging markets, concluding many will be forced to implement defensive measures
Neutral rate down to around 3.5% in New Zealand – RBNZ deputy
Rate is challenging to estimate but central bank’s models and surveys suggest it has fallen in recent years to around 3.5%
Fintech not an ‘immediate threat’ to monetary policy – paper
Research from the Bank of Canada explores the impact fintech could have on central banks’ responsibilities, deeming it “too early to judge” the effect on mandates
Uzbekistan to press ahead with forex reforms
Authorities plan to “frontload” efforts to unite black market and official exchange rates, allowing the central bank to focus on stabilising prices
Inflation expectations down in ECB forecaster survey
Forecasters see inflation falling slightly, despite rising employment and GDP growth
Mozambique central bank praised for monetary framework overhaul
IMF staff approve of changes made towards interest rate corridor, but say the central bank should remain vigilant with regard to prudential regulation
ECB will look afresh at policy this autumn – Draghi
Draghi says recovery is continuing, but strikes a cautious note on inflationary pressures
Sarb takes action amid ‘extremely weak’ demand
Central bank revises down its forecasts as economic situation deteriorates; governor warns of possible cliff effect if there are further rating downgrades
Bank of Japan cuts inflation forecast as policy remains on hold
The BoJ cuts its forecast for prices as it struggles to hit its inflation target; keeps policy steady
Verbs matter in forward guidance – Italian paper
Researchers look at verbs used in ECB statements from 2002 to 2015
IMF praises Madagascar’s approach to monetary framework change
Madagascan central bank to introduce overnight deposit facility to form basis of an interest rate corridor; fund notes effects of vanilla bean shock still being felt by banks
The BoJ’s exit policy and balance sheet risks
The Bank of Japan will need to follow a meticulous sequencing of events as its ‘normalises’ monetary policy, making current concerns about negative equity appear premature
Australia’s neutral rate of interest is around 3.5% – RBA minutes
RBA minutes show hawkish slant compared with policy statement released earlier this month; central bank estimates neutral rate has fallen 150 basis points
Fed paper: portfolio holdings have ‘statistically significant’ effect on rates
Research studies composition of Fed’s Treasury portfolio and impact on yields from 1985-2016
IMF continues building up Somali central bank
Planned currency reform should give the central bank the ability to implement monetary policy
Draghi, quo vadis?
Jesper Berg warns the eurozone's improved outlook creates a host of problems for the ECB, as it must balance competing demands