Economics
ECB official calls for European AI strategy
Plan required to keep European firms competitive, ECB board member Cipollone says
‘Unprecedented’ immigration boosts US economy – Dallas Fed
Authors say there is reason to believe immigration is net neutral for inflation
US labour markets approaching pre-pandemic state, report finds
Simple rules suggest fed funds rate should be at or below current level, report says
Inflation rebounds in OECD countries
Rising energy costs drive uptick in many economies, but G7 avoids increase
Dollar exchange rate variation affects prices less than euro – Riksbank study
Krona-dollar depreciation often coincides with downturn in demand
‘Selective memory’ helps explain expectation de-anchoring – paper
Authors build model around three “regularities of human recall”
Monetary policy could face ‘tougher tests’ ahead, BIS warns
Soft landing “in sight”, but pricing imbalances, fragile fiscal policy and financial vulnerabilities loom
Canadian rate hikes may have lasting effects – research
Bank of Canada researchers find disposable income could decrease by up to 5% by 2027
US inflation’s last mile ‘could take several years’ – Cleveland Fed
Favourable shocks are necessary to reach 2% quickly, researcher argues
Transitioning to renewables could reduce shock impact – research
Authors say Brazilian economy may serve as a model in the clean energy transition
Monetary policy-makers should track bubbles – Dallas Fed paper
Economists warn of possible ‘explosive bubbles’ and evaporating wealth
Italian service sector needs liberalising, paper finds
Bank of Italy research says making market entry easier boosts productivity for all firms
Simpler models can capture dynamics of Hank framework – NBER paper
Heterogeneity can be “irrelevant” to determining output in some situations, authors find
UK inflation touches BoE’s target
Alignment with goal expected to be short lived but opens door to rate cuts later in year
Book notes: The wealth of a nation, by Geoffrey Hodgson
This book provides a deep dive into the economic and institutional transformations that supported the rise of English capitalism
Start small to secure resources for AI, central bankers say
Data-driven results could demonstrate GenAI’s usefulness, Summer Meetings hear
Central bankers warn of US election risks
Danger of tariffs and supply chain disruptions, Central Banking Summer Meetings hear
Housing price disparities complicate US monetary policy – research
Time-varying inertia in prices makes housing bubbles more unpredictable, Dallas Fed paper says
Economics is becoming exclusive, RBA official warns
Drop in diversity among Australian economists will hurt discipline, Jacqui Dwyer says
Atlanta Fed cuts second-quarter US GDP estimate
Bostic says “orderly slowdown” could be positive news
Fed research investigates supply chain resilience
Stiglitz and co-authors look at firms’ investment in production capacity
Global natural rates could be rising, SNB governor says
Jordan says Swiss central bank’s approach allows it to deal with uncertainty over r*