Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
Most central banks forecasted real economic growth more reliably than headline inflation over the past year, the Economics Benchmarks 2026 find.
More than three-fifths (61.3%) of 31 central bank economics departments say their growth forecast errors were “roughly in line with historical average” in 2025. Just under half (48.4%) of respondents said inflation errors were in line with the historical average.
For both variables, errors were more likely to come in lower than average than higher
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