Inflation
South African Reserve Bank reflects on forecasts
Latest monetary policy review analyses the central bank's inflation forecasts between 2003 and 2014, finding they 'marginally' outperform outside efforts
Icelandic research proposes new measure of core inflation
‘Dynamic factor measure' outperforms current core measures in terms of matching the mean of CPI inflation while having lower volatility, argues author
Central Bank of Brazil will not be ‘complacent' with inflation, says governor
Governor Alexandre Tombini offers reassurances the Central Bank of Brazil is working to keep inflation ‘under control’ with annual CPI growth steady around 6.5%
Money-inflation link shows signs of breaking down - Bundesbank paper
Researchers present evidence that money growth and inflation are losing synchronicity in the medium- to long-run, although the relationship still holds in the very long-run
Oil price forecast errors impact wider inflation estimates, Banque de France study finds
When there is ‘large’ volatility in oil prices, the pass-through of forecast errors to inflation estimates increases, research finds
Riksbank deputy pleased with macro-prudential progress 'for now'
Martin Flodén says further measures could be taken if central bank's 0% interest rate fails to push up inflation toward 2% target
Klaas Knot: It’s up to governments now
Netherlands Bank president tells parliament that European governments will have to boost growth and ‘stir up’ inflation themselves; latest central bank bulletin reinforces point
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard doubts zero lower bound
James Bullard says low inflation in the US may justify a ‘somewhat lower-than-normal’ policy rate, but not remaining at the zero lower bound
Carney dismisses call for helicopter money
Bank of England governor says he ‘cannot envisage any circumstance’ where direct central bank financing of government debt would be justified – but some central banks may already be doing it
ECB watchers cut inflation forecasts
Average forecasts in 2014 and 2015 drop to 0.5% and 1% respectively, but probability distribution reveals little concern over deflation in the eurozone
Carney: Inflation ‘likely’ to drop below 1%
Bank of England signals rates firmly on hold into 2015 as probability rises of inflation falling below 1% in the short run; real wage growth likely to accelerate over the year
Riksbank board at a loss over falling inflation, minutes suggest
Ingves says Swedish economy needs ‘two different policy rates: one for households and one for companies', while central bank casts doubt on new mortgage repayment rules
PBoC sheds light on opaque liquidity measures
Central bank confirms injection of billions of renminbi via new ‘medium-term lending facility’ as part of efforts to offset weaker foreign exchange inflows
Bank of Russia hikes interest rates to stem ruble sell-off
Central bank raises key rate by 150bp to highest level since 2009 as currency reaches record low against dollar; spent $3bn propping up ruble on October 29
Kocherlakota explains dissent from FOMC decision to end asset purchases
Minneapolis Fed president says downside risks to inflation outlook ‘arguably worse' than a year ago; says evidence from Japan and Europe shows need to act on 'an ongoing basis'
Central Bank of Brazil hikes rates following knife-edge election
Split MPC raises Selic rate to 11.25% in surprise decision amid ‘less favourable' inflation outlook; ‘sign inflation may be given greater priority' by re-elected government, analyst says
Bank Indonesia sets out reform agenda for next 10 years
Improving control over inflation and support for financial system stability are the main goals of the ’transformation program’
Rajan overruled external members’ call for rate cut in September
External members on RBI’s technical advisory committee see the case for easing, and the majority voted for a rate cut in September; deputy governor portfolios shaken up
IMF paper sees EU inflation expectations holding firm
Working paper says low core inflation in eurozone has had ‘significant’ impact on the rest of the region, though the main driver of disinflation remains food and energy prices
BoE’s Haldane sees UK economy ‘writhing in both agony and ecstasy’
Chief economist sees reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the UK economy, but says on balance rates are likely to have to stay lower for longer than expected
MAS holds policy on back of stubborn core inflation
Monetary Authority of Singapore says it will let the S$NEER appreciate at a 'modest and gradual' rate in its semi-annual monetary policy statement
Armenian central bank looks to spark inflation ‘rebound’
Central Bank of Armenia says it will continue ‘loosening’ monetary conditions as it looks to return annual CPI inflation to its 4% target
Significance of Swedish debt levels for Riksbank policy ‘exaggerated', says deputy
Per Jansson says expansive policy helped Sweden manage crisis better than many other countries; adds higher inflation is Riksbank's top priority
Czech economy generating ‘noticeable inflationary pressures’
Czech National Bank board members point to ‘rapid’ rise in wages as indicator of inflationary pressures, but remain concerned by price developments in the eurozone