Inflation
Norges Bank deputy warns of vulnerabilities in financial system
“Sharp rise” in property prices and high household indebtedness are a concern, the latest financial stability report reveals; banking sector’s largest corporate exposure is to the real estate market
Bank of England MPC backtracks on planned rate cut
Latest inflation report forecasts larger overshoot of 2% target; there are “limits” to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated, committee says
More research needed on exchange rate pass-through, ECB article says
Research on effects of different shocks on inflation “still in an incipient phase”
BoJ pushes back forecast of 2% inflation
Central bank admits it will take longer than previously expected to hit 2%, as it keeps monetary policy on hold
Dominican Republic central bank hikes despite falling inflation
Central bank action comes as economy grows more than expected, although inflation is well below target; US factors prove a concern
Brazil’s inflation forecasts send mixed messages for monetary policy
‘Market’ forecast suggests there is a limit to monetary easing, central bank minutes show, though ‘reference’ scenario indicates room for more easing
Riksbank signals low rates will stay longer
Swedish central bank says rates likely to remain on hold for longer than planned, with chance of an inter-meeting asset-purchase extension
Chile’s Vergara to pass torch to Marcel
Mario Marcel is chosen to become the next central bank governor when Vergara’s term ends in December; Marcel has experience at the World Bank, OECD and IDB
Brazil makes first interest rate cut in four years
Upbeat inflation figures prompt Central Bank of Brazil into action as Copom unanimously votes for 25bp cut; post-decision statement implies further cuts possible this year
Output gap in euro area is much larger than official estimates – paper
Official estimates predict output gap 3–4% less negative than author’s results; current models do not “adequately capture” inflation developments
Still room to support domestic economic growth after cut, says Ugandan governor
Exchange rate movements remain key risk to inflation, says Tumusiime-Mutebile, as Bank of Uganda cuts interest rates by 100bps
UK inflation jump to 1% is just ‘tip of the iceberg’
Latest inflation data shows leap from 0.6% in August to 1% in September; former MPC member Sentance says this is just tip of the iceberg
Foreign investment ‘restored’ exchange rates after policy shocks – paper
Data from Colombian central bank shows foreign exchange intervention have “short-lived effects” on prices; over the medium term, foreign capital flows push exchange rate back to original level
Neutral policy stance needed for ‘extended’ period – MAS
Singapore’s central bank says inflation is trending in the right direction, but notes economic growth is unlikely to pick up over the next year
BoE corporate bond purchases off to rapid start
Barely more than two weeks into the 18-month programme, the BoE has already filled more than 10% of its quota; gilt purchases continuing at steady rate
Evolution of exchange rate main risk to inflation – Mexican deputy
Electoral uncertainty playing on the minds of policy-makers at Bank of Mexico, says Guzmán Calafell; higher pass-through to prices now more of a risk thanks to peso depreciation
No timelines for easing monetary policy – Brazilian governor
Goldfajn comments on monetary policy arrangement in Brazil at the first IMF annual meeting appearance; decisions will be data-dependent, he says
Benefits to inflation overshooting target – Chicago Fed president
Policy-makers “willing to accept” inflationary risk that comes with falling unemployment if Fed overshoots target, Evans says
Fall in inflation only ‘temporary’ – Sarb governor
Positive factors underlying inflation decrease may not be here to stay, says Kganyago, emphasising a continued rise in inflation could threaten long-run growth
RBI’s new MPC cuts rate at first meeting
Debate was “frank, often intense, but always friendly” says governor Urjit Patel, after monetary policy committee votes unanimously for a cut
Inflation worries prompt action from Bank of Mexico
Central bank hikes interest rate by 50bps in last monetary policy meeting before the US presidential election; peso proves volatile in face of international events
Bank of Canada should not raise inflation target – Obstfeld and co-authors
Central bank has been overtaken in transparency metrics, authors say; forward guidance would catapult Canada to top of rankings and could avoid the need for unconventional measures
Armenia cuts again as deflation deepens
Central bank cuts headline rate as inflation dips further below zero, though the board maintains it will be able to return inflation to target in medium term
Inflation expectations more sensitive near the zero lower bound – IMF study
IMF study examines whether monetary policy can boost inflation in constrained environment; countries near zero lower bound could see inflation respond more to shocks