Forward guidance
‘Say what?’ Trust in central bank communications
Central banks are changing how they communicate with different audiences, but judging the success of these communication efforts is difficult
ECB’s Lane: one-off wage increases do not equal sustained inflation
Inflation is forecast to have reached 3.4% year on year in September, well above the ECB’s 2% goal
Summers fears for Fed’s ability to remove ‘punchbowl’
Central banks may not be able to counter inflation threat, says former US Treasury secretary
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
Ex-US Treasury head speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord and ‘unknown unknowns’
Brainard cites Delta in dovish speech
Fed governor warns “employment is still a bit short of the mark” for taper
Too great expectations from the ECB’s strategy review
The review process represents operational best practice, but will fail to unify the Governing Council
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Is the ECB’s strategy review enough?
Reformed framework may allow greater stimulus to tackle weak inflation expectations, but Governing Council is already divided
New forward guidance is “elemental” for ECB strategy, Lane says
Chief economist implicitly disagrees with Belgian governor’s criticism of new wording
An assessment of the ECB’s strategy review
Aspects of the framework raise challenges for implementation and credibility, while climate change inclusion may politicise the institution
Podcast: Why forward guidance needs guidance
Richard Barwell of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses the limitations of forward guidance
Powerful companies are diluting monetary policy effectiveness – IMF
Competition policies are needed to ensure central banks can use monetary policy effectively
New inflation target set to bind ECB to ‘lower for longer’ strategy
Symmetric 2% target should allow council to boost APP purchases as Pepp is phased out, say analysts
ECB likely to shy away from AIT in new monetary policy framework
Symmetric 2% target is expected outcome; council members struggle to agree on forward guidance
Brazil’s MPC raises rate and tightens forward guidance
Central bank warns energy crisis and difficulties in restoring supply are boosting inflation
Powell says US is recovering faster than expected
Majority of FOMC members now expect policy rate hike in 2023, with no decision yet on taper
ECB policy paper says unconventional policy worked
Paper says QE purchases explain “lion’s share” of changes to eurozone yield curves
Fed’s Quarles says time is coming for taper talk
St Louis Fed’s Bullard says it is “too early” to talk of tapering asset purchases
Fed leaders hold dovish line as CPI surges
Board members and regional presidents say inflation and employment goals still far from met
Dallas Fed chief wants to talk about tapers
Comments may indicate split at Fed, though FOMC remains committed to asset purchases
FOMC members welcomed ‘outcome-based’ guidance on QE
Fed policy-makers emphasised importance of balance sheet being used flexibly, minutes show
What does 2021 hold for the ECB?
Former officials reflect on AIT, the strategy review, QE options and new tools
Otmar Issing on the art of central bank communications
EMU architect critiques “whatever it takes”, forward guidance, Fed’s AIT and ECB’s strategy review
Brazil central bank could ‘test’ lower rates if inflation remains weak – IMF
IMF staff see “no constraint” to lower rates as long as forward guidance is deployed