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Research

IMF Staff Report on Germany

REPORT - IMF Publications Germany: 2001 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion Series, 7 November.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

REPORT - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was virtually unchanged at -1.28 in September. The three-month moving average index (CFNAI-MA3) was -0.95 in September, marking the fifteenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero.

The Magic's Gone

RESEARCH - A hard look at the data shows that the famous NAIRU Phillips curve does no better at forecasting inflation than a simple look at the past. From 'The Region' published quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, September 2001.

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