Federal Reserve System
30 years of forecasting: have central banks learned anything?
Forecasting models are constantly being upgraded, but forecast errors are still persistent. What more can central banks do?
Inflation targets may have to rise, new study finds
Optimal policy would see targets rise by roughly the same amount as the decline in neutral rates, researchers say
Fed floats new stress test reforms after industry pressure
Previous proposal drew criticism from major global banks
Households respond more forcefully to rate cuts than QE – Dallas Fed
Fed should improve communications for QE and forward guidance, researchers say
FOMC members appear split as meeting nears
Rosengren says “no immediate” need to cut, while Bullard urges Fed to take “aggressive” steps
People: Banque de France deputy nominated to EU Commission
Turkey fills two vacant deputy posts; Fed appoints head for new FedNow payments service; Iceland looks for director of financial stability replacement; FSB appoints Norman Chan’s replacement
Fed balance sheet could surpass crisis-era peak by 2025
Central bank may start buying Treasuries outright as soon as this year, New York Fed report shows
Modernising currency management
Central banks continue to strive to optimise currency operations at a time when the relative importance of cash is falling, but usage continues to grow. William Towning looks back at the last 30 years
Fed economists propose alternative to floor system
Pre-crisis BoE framework may preclude need for further ‘technical adjustments’, researchers say
Inflation edges higher as Fed prepares for next meeting
Consumer spending boosts economy, but recent sentiment data suggests it could be about change
A key message from Jackson Hole: policy must globalise
Setting policy in isolation is becoming untenable and spillovers must be considered more, remarks suggest
San Fran Fed president ‘biased’ towards a hot economy
Gains from a hot economy disproportionately flow to disadvantaged groups, Daly says
US senator calls for hearings on Fed’s role in 2020 elections
Republican accuses former NY Fed chair Dudley of trying “sabotage” Trump’s trade talks
Fed should scrap apolitical stance, urges former senior official
Dudley says Fed should set rates with Trump’s re-election chances in mind
BdF paper looks at FOMC hawks and doves
Predictions of rate-setters with hawkish reputations often biased towards higher inflation – researcher
RBA open to unconventional policy measures – deputy governor Debelle
Quantitative easing may be on the cards if central bank cuts rates to 0.5%
Powell treads cautious line in Jackson Hole remarks
Chairman gives few clues to future policy; Trump appears unimpressed with the address
FOMC divided over July cut, minutes show
Some FOMC members worried by effect of rate cut on US financial stability
Trump attacks ‘horrendous lack of vision’ by Powell
President calls for return to crisis-era policies and acknowledges strong dollar is harming other economies
The roots of the new gold fever
The end of the Central Bank Gold Agreement could herald the return of gold as a key reserve asset
The Fed’s trade policy dilemma
FOMC should loosen, but members must speak out more forcefully against tariffs, writes Barry Eichengreen
Trump criticises ‘clueless Jay Powell’ as markets plunge
US equity markets face sell off and 30-year treasuries dip below 2% for first time
Fed paper looks at negative rates’ impact on eurozone banks
Effects of policy rate cuts on equity change past the zero lower bound, researchers say
Derivatives users split over legacy Libor swaps
CCPs say cleared swaps will move to new rates if Libor is no longer representative of markets