Flatter US yield curve may not herald a new crisis – San Francisco Fed
The curve inversion has not materialised, while low long-term yields may be related to quantitative easing
The flatter yield curve in the US may fail to herald a new crisis, despite its reliability in indicating previous recessions due in part to the effects of the Federal Reserve bond-buying programme.
In Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions, Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens, research advisers at the San Francisco Fed, acknowledge the difference between 10-year and three-month yields has historically been a useful indicator to foresee crises.
However, they do not think its recent
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