Finnish paper finds forecast errors correlate with subjective uncertainty, not 'disagreement'


New research by two Finnish economists looks into the link between forecast uncertainty and subsequent forecast errors, finding that subjective uncertainty is a better proxy for forecast uncertainty than disagreement.

The paper, Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data, by Maritta Paloviita of the Bank of Finland and Matti Virén, a scientific adviser at the Bank of Finland and professor of economics at University of Turku, studies forecast errors at the micro level using the

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