ECB researchers analyse expert forecasters' predictive abilities

European Central Bank at night

A team of researchers at the European Central Bank (ECB) has put out a working paper analysing the usefulness of predictions made in the ECB's periodical Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), promising "a number of findings of relevance to central banks, and others, making use of SPF results to inform their decisions".

The paper, entitled Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF, and written by Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka and Federico Maseraand, finds

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