Bank of Canada paper builds alternative oil price forecast scenarios

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A Bank of Canada paper published on January 25 illustrates how policy-relevant forecast scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions can be constructed from recently proposed structural vector auto-regression models of the global oil market.

Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian, the paper's authors, use a vector auto-regression model to quantify the risks associated with forecasts of the real price of oil and examine how changes in the probability weights attached to different

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