Commodity futures help forecast spot prices during periods of turmoil: IMF paper


An International Monetary Fund paper published on Thursday finds no significant difference in the forecasting ability of futures markets during bull and bear markets.

David Reichsfeld and Shaun Roache, the paper's authors, assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether their performance is affected by market conditions. The authors note that futures prices did a poor job as forecasters during the recent commodity price

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact [email protected] or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact [email protected] to find out more.

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here: