Commodity futures help forecast spot prices during periods of turmoil: IMF paper

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An International Monetary Fund paper published on Thursday finds no significant difference in the forecasting ability of futures markets during bull and bear markets.

David Reichsfeld and Shaun Roache, the paper's authors, assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether their performance is affected by market conditions. The authors note that futures prices did a poor job as forecasters during the recent commodity price

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