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China could trigger Treasuries selloff to punish US – paper

Beijing might sustain short-term self-harm to undermine US assets’ safe haven reputation, authors say

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The impact of China dumping Treasuries could trigger a financial crisis if US borrowing increases significantly, a new study has concluded.

The working paper, published on January 22 by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research, says that if US debt levels remained stable, the price impact of such a selloff would be “very limited”. 

The authors – Christopher Clayton of Yale, Matteo Maggiori of Stanford and Jesse Schreger of Columbia University – say this would be the case if the US were

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