Christopher Sims on modelling the inflation surge
Unprecedented shocks creates major challenges for forecasters, the Nobel prize-winning economist says
In your Nobel Prize lecture in 2011, you described economists’ understanding of monetary policy as being on an “ascent to higher ground”, but you also said the ground was still shaky. Have economists climbed further since then?
It’s as if we were climbing a mountain and it began to crumble under our feet. The shifts in the economy and the shifts in the sources of variation in the economy have been very big since then. So, even though our methods and our level of sophistication have gone up, the
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