A paper seeking to identify signs the Swiss franc floor was about to break in 2015 has found there may have been some hints – but forecasting the full exchange rate movement is difficult.
The working paper, published by the Bank for International Settlements, derives probability densities for future exchange rates from option prices at the time. The result indicates that while break probabilities never significantly exceeded 50%, the credibility of the floor of Sfr1.20 to the euro did decline t
- Podcast: San Fran Fed’s Daly on gender inequality in central banks
- Turkish central bank carries out emergency rate hike as currency falls
- Dudley calls for ‘aggressive action’ on benchmark reforms
- Swift starts work on pan-European real-time payment connectivity pilot
- Strike halts Australian banknote production