IMF recommends new tool to measure housing market risks


Policy-makers should use a new measure called ‘house prices at risk’ to complement banking supervision and guide macro-prudential policy, the International Monetary Fund says in part of its latest Global Financial Stability Report.

House prices at risk (HaR) is an estimate of the risk of a large decline in house prices in the future, the downside risk. It can help forecast downside risks to GDP growth “over and above” other measures of house price imbalances, chapter two of the IMF report says.

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