Buba paper identifies inconsistencies in central bank risk forecasts

A Bundesbank paper published on Sunday finds that central banks do not in all cases incorporate information from their risk assessments in macroeconomic forecasts.

The paper's authors, Malte Knüppel and Guido Schultefrankenfeld, investigate the forecasting practices at several central banks to examine how informative their assessments of macroeconomic risks are in producing forecasts.

Knüppel and Schultefrankenfeld note that since the balance of risks is supposed to contain information about the