Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario

ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says

Isabel Schnabel
Isabel Schnabel
Bernd Hartung / European Central Bank

The European Central Bank (ECB) may no longer rely on a central forecast scenario if it makes greater use of scenario analysis in future, executive board member Isabel Schnabel said on April 17.

Despite being relatively accurate over the 2013–19 period of low interest rates, forecasts since then have often been erroneous and “created a false sense of precision”, Schnabel said.

This has brought major central banks’ ability to maintain price stability to question, she said. She noted how ECB staff

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