Changing policy impact may knock forecasts askew – Riksbank economists

Weaker policy pass-through may have impaired forecasting

Sveriges Riksbank. Photo: David Lundberg

Sveriges Riksbank's forecasting has systematically overestimated inflationary pressures since the 2008 crisis, which may reflect changes in the way monetary policy feeds through to the economy, two economists at the central bank suggest in a paper published on December 5.

Christina Nyman and Ulf Söderström, both deputy heads of the Riksbank's monetary policy department, point out that the Riksbank's forecasts have performed well relative to others for growth and unemployment, but have fallen

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