The signal and the noise: cash forecasting in uncertain times

From big data tools to Arima models and structural time series, cash forecasting methods are evolving

What is the future of cash? The question has many dimensions. One is philosophical: should people always be able to pay using banknotes, or would electronic forms of money suffice? Another is economic: how do changing patterns of payment use affect the economy, and what does that mean for central bank operations? A third is mathematical: what will the shape of cash demand look like in a year’s time? To answer the latter question, forecast models are required. It turns out that the quality of

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