Bank of Finland paper evaluates confidence indicators in forecasts

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A discussion paper, published by the Bank of Finland today (July 12), studies the effectiveness of various measures of confidence in the Russian economy in producing accurate growth forecasts.

The author, Niko Korte, uses autoregressions based on Russian growth data from 1996–2011 to assess the predictive power of a range of confidence measures. The paper suggests certain indicators significantly improve forecasts, while others have minimal or negative effects.

The paper finds that figures from

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