CNB's Tuma on the exchange rate forecast

In the speech 'The exchange rate forecast' given on 22 February Zdenek Tuma of the Czech National Bank said there is little doubt that the exchange rate plays a critical role in any attempt to forecast the business cycle in a small open economy.

"Consequently, an exchange rate block is of primary importance in any tool the central bank may use for forecasting. If you look at central banks' models, however, you will find that the exchange rate equation is in fact always governed by a very simple

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