Interest rate forecasts ‘constrain’ central banks


Central banks that publish interest rate paths are "constrained" by their forecasts, according to a working paper published yesterday by Norges Bank.

The paper – Announcements of interest rate forecasts: Do policymakers stick to them? by Nikola Mirkov and Gisle James Natvik – notes that if central banks "value the ex-post accuracy of their forecasts", current policy decisions may be influenced by previous forecasts; a phenomenon dubbed "forecast adherence".

Investigating Norges Bank and the

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